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THE PLAYERS Championship | Stats, Trends & Things You Don't Need To Know
TPC Sawgrass
Par 72 - 7,256 Yards
Fairways Hit: 59.48% (24th hardest out of 51)
Greens Hit: 66.31% (27th hardest out of 51)
Birdie or Better: 70.09% (21st hardest out of 51)
Scoring Average: 72.42 (16th hardest out of 51)
March vs. May
From 2007 to 2018, this event was held in May. In 2019, it was moved back to March and there are some significant differences in weather, grass surfaces, winds and much more. If you’re looking for “course history”, consider “short course history”. Here are the best players in the field since the March move (2019 & 2021).
RRG Has Just Gotten More Nerdy
For those of you living under a rock, Andy Lack has been the co-host of The Scramble with me since the start of the year. I love his expertise on course architecture and how that could be valuable in the betting/fantasy markets. We’ve come together to expand his role in the RickRunGood eco-system. What that means:
Andy will write (2) articles a week for RickRunGood.com.
1) In-depth course breakdown with nerdy, actionable information.
2) Wednesday Final Thoughts piece with all available data, ownership and more.
This is really just the start for this relationship but it fits so well with the existing “brand” that is RRG and provides more value to subscribers. Win-Win.
If you don’t believe me when I say “in-depth”, here’s a real actual exert from this week’s article written by (a presumably human) Andy Lack.
Read the rest: https://bit.ly/34kC2e0
The Emergence of Cameron Young
I’ve been fawning over Young’s raw talent for the last few weeks, but I think he’s been even more impressive than I realized. Over the last 20 rounds, Young has been the 7th best playing in this field in raw Strokes Gained (+1.98). However, when you consider strength of field and looked at weighted strokes gained, Young actually gets better!
Expect A Little Carnage
Florida Golf is just built a little differently and it pans out in fantasy circles. Dating back to 2018, 24.44% of golfers who were priced $9,000 or more at THE PLAYERS Championship went on to miss the cut. Their average finish was 46.73, which is the 13th highest finish out of 36 qualifying events in that stretch. If you’re a fan of high-priced missed cuts, here are the events for you:
The American Express: 40.54% MC Rate
Sanderson Farms Championship: 38.89%
Valspar Championship: 38.88%
Honda Classic: 38.3%
RSM Classic: 37.5%
The Par 5 Cheat Code
There’s another snippet from Andy’s Course Preview that highlights the rarity of Par 5s at TPC Sawgrass. Each of the (4) Par 5s have a birdie rate over 30% and a bogey rate over 8%. That’s unique and speaks to variance. I present to you, the best golfers in the field on the (4) Par 5s at Sawgrass (2, 9, 11, 16) dating back to 2016 …
Is PrizePicks Bankrupt Yet?
Seriously, has anyone checked on them? The amount of winning screenshots that I saw from last week was bonkers. In the last four Scramble Episodes, Andy and I have given out 17 props — 15 of them have won. That’s pace will likely dwindle at some point, but let’s try to stay hot. A few notable props early in the week:
Collin Morikawa over 10 Fairways (R1)
- Has hit 10+ FWs in 12 of his last 17 rounds
- Wet conditions could help
Paul Casey under 9 Fairways (R1)
- Wet condition could help Casey too, but he’s been brutal.
- under 9 FWs in ten straight rounds (!!)
- under 9 FWs in 4 of his last 5 at TPC Sawgrass
These lines will probably move within a few minutes of this email being sent out, so please be quick. Code “RICK” — Link: https://bit.ly/3oxONZw
Pivot Central
With a huge influx of casual players, soft pricing and potential carnage at TPC Sawgrass, there may never be a better time to — PIVOT! Here are the highest ranked golfers in DraftKings Points Gained, this year, who are averaging ownership below 10%:
Cameron Young +24.9 (6.2%)
Keegan Bradley +23.5 (6.1%)
Francesco Molinari +21.3 (4.0%)
Chris Kirk +20.7 (8.7%)
Sepp Straka +18.5 (2.6%)
Good Luck!
Rick