🍍 Aloha & Hello
Sentry TOC Wednesday Preview | Stats, Trends & More!
🍍 Aloha & Hello
Sentry TOC Wednesday Preview | Stats, Trends & More!
Good morning! We are on the eve of the first round of golf in 2023 and I couldn’t be more excited. We’ve got 39 of the best golfers bearing down on one of the most scenic courses in the world — all played in primetime. Boom!
Quick update on the RickRunGood OAD — it’s full! Thanks so much for not making me sweat that into next week and thrilled to have it all taken care of this early.
Worth noting: The new year OAD starts next week, but if you’re in the OAD that started in September — YOU NEED TO MAKE A PICK THIS WEEK!
Okay — let’s go.
Rick
🔃 Ownership Pivots
Back again to do ownership projections at RickRunGood.com is Mike Kavaliunas — absolutely one of the best out there. Using his ownership projections*, here are some of the interesting pivot options.
Anyone in the $9K+ range ➡ Collin Morikawa
Morikawa is checking in at 16.6% pOwn, the lowest of anyone priced at $9,300 or more. Over his last 100 rounds, Morikawa is the 4th best approach player in this field.
Jordan Spieth ➡ Hideki Matusyama
Let’s be real —- do we have any idea how these two will do? Total x-factors. They could win or finish dead last but Matsuyama is checking in at half the ownership of Spieth (21% to 10.5%). I don’t particularly love playing either but if you’re going to roster one it might as well be Hideki.
*projections subject to change, check RickRunGood.com for the most up-to-date
🍁 The Case For & Against … Corey Conners
For: Below his average salary over the last 12 starts. 10th best ball-striker in the field over the last 36 rounds. Has lost strokes off-the-tee once since February of 2021 (seriously). Gained strokes putting in 4 of 5 trips to Hawaii.
Cons: Disaster at the TOUR Championship, Disaster at the Fortinet, Disaster at the Presidents Cup, okay at the ZOZO, okay at the CJ Cup, disaster at the Hero World Challenge. Lowest 2+ SG upside of anyone not priced in the $6,000 range.
💯 Let’s Offer a Reset
This is such a weird time of year. We have guys who have played nearly every week during the fall, guys who haven’t played in months, guys who had babies, guys who got married, guys who were hot at the end of the year and guys who were trending in the wrong direction. Let’s just reset everyone to their 100 round baseline and see if we can find some value.
Will Zalatoris, returning from two herniated discs in his back, is the 7th best player in the field during that timeframe and priced at $8,900.
No one has gained more fantasy points to the field than Patrick Cantlay over that timeframe, with Scheffler, JT, Cam Young and Zalatoris rounding out the Top 5.
Since this is a strong field, let’s look at Weighted Strokes Gained. Hideki Matsuyama (+0.79) and Jordan Spieth (+0.52) both rank behind Brian Harman (+1.07) and Russell Henley (+1.15) in this department.
💲 The Matchup Market
There are 28 (!!!) matchups available on BroThrow right now — a site that matches bettors to each side of the wager and takes no juice.
The guys that stand out to me the most are the ones who gain 2+ strokes per round very frequently. For example, Sam Burns does it 41% of the time (same at Justin Thomas). Aaron Wise does it 35% of the time (same as Sungjae Im). Seamus Power does it 32% of the time (same as Will Zalatoris). These are guys who might not have the winning upside but rack up lots of matchup wins.
If you want to join us on BroThrow, you have to have an invite. This will get you into the RickRunGood Group.
🌴 SG: Aloha
The best golfers in the field on Hawaii (Sentry & Sony) dating back to 2016.
