Aloha (Week 2)
Sony Open | Stats, Trends & Things You Don't Need To Know
Course: Waialae Country Club
Par 70 - 7,044 Yards
Bermudagrass Greens
Steady Eddy
The “Hawaii Open” has been played at Waialae for what seems like a million years. In realty, it’s only been 57 years but that still remains as one of the longest standing tournament/course combinations on the schedule. It’s in the top handful of courses where history is very “sticky”, meaning that players often find success year-over-year. Let’s start simply with the best players at Waialae since 2008:
Out Of The Gate
Who doesn’t love a First Round Leader? Why wait 72 holes to cash your ticket when you can do it in 18? When considering FRL wagers, there’s a lot of factors and a lot of luck involved. The primary way to determine a good FRL is to find the golfers who play well in R1. Here’s the best R1 players since Jan. 1, 2020:
Stephen Jaeger +1.72 (across PGA and KFT)
Greyson Sigg +1.56 (across PGA and KFT)
Chris Kirk +1.50
Russell Henley +1.46
Chad Ramey +1.46 (across PGA and KFT)
This tells part of the story, but not really the whole thing. Yes, we want golfers who play well in R1 but to find value, we want golfers who play better than usual in R1. So I fired up the ole spreadsheet to get you the golfers who play better in R1 than their average in rounds 2-4.
(Keegan was 11th, btw — legendary FRL)
Seriously The Last Call
If you want to play in my One & Done, today is the last day to enter and pay. As of last check, there’s about 493 paid entries. Below is the link to all the information to sign-up and a possible payout structure. Obviously the structure will change when entries are finalized. Don’t be the person who emails me Friday afternoon trying to get in :)
Information and Sign-Up Link:
https://bit.ly/3e3oTak
The Chosen One
There is one golfer in this field in which all of the following is true…
Best in wStrokes Gained Last 12 Rounds
Best in wStrokes Gained Last 24 Rounds
Best in wStrokes Gained Last 36 Rounds
Best in wStrokes Gained Last 48 Rounds
Best in wStrokes Gained Last 100 Rounds
Best in wStrokes Gained Putting Last 50 Rounds
Best in wStrokes Gained Putting Last 100 Rounds
Has Won This Event Before
Set PGA Tournament Scoring Record Last Week
Has a Mullet
That’s Cam Smith for those of you who are stumped.
All The Content You Can Imagine
I’ve been busy this week, here’s the (hopefully definitive list with links):
Distance Is Not a Pre-Requisite
Distance is always an advantage, but sometimes it’s required. Not here at Waialae. Of the 40 courses on the TOUR schedule this season, driving distance is ranked 31st in correlation to success. Here are the best golfers on courses ranked 31-40, when distance is not a requirement, since 2008:
Webb Simpson +1.41
Jim Furyk +1.31
Charles Howell III +1.18
Matt Kuchar +1.15
Emiliano Grillo +1.04
Same factors but last two years:
Webb Simpson +1.79
Abraham Ancer +1.42
Corey Conners +1.23
Kevin Na +1.13
Seamus Power +1.08
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Rick