🩴Beware of the Triangle

Cabo Review & Bermuda Preview | Stats, Trends & More!

Nov 07, 2023

I wish I had something profound to write here or a remarkable experience from the past week to share but I do not. On to the data!

Enjoy
Rick

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🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup 🐯

💚 Erik The Green

After a terrible 2023 season, Erik van Rooyen has turned his game around and started posting a lot of green on his golfer profile page.

Since the Barracuda Championship, nine starts again, EVR has never lost strokes ball-striking. That’s a stark contrast considering his lost in each of seven events prior to that turnaround.

He had a close call in Europe, gaining 10.02 strokes to the field and finishing T8 at the European Masters. Last week he gained 14.23 and got back into the winner’s circle.

🦗 Ludvig Is A Problem

Not for me, but for everyone playing professional golf right now. Since turning pro, 13 starts ago, he has:

Earned (10) Top 25 Finishes
Earned (6) Top 10 Finishes
Never lost strokes off-the-tee
Won the European Masters
Won the Ryder Cup

Reminder that he has never played in a Major and was in college five months ago.

Texas Tech roundup: Ludvig Aberg, Red Raiders take 3rd in season opener

🏖️Short Kings

Port Royal GC plays to a staggering 6,828 yards on the scorecard as a par-71. It’s remarkably short for PGA TOUR standards and creates a dynamic where distance off-the-tee is certainly not a requirement.

Here are the Short Kings — the best golfers in this field on courses below 7,000 yards since 2018:

🪶 He’s Russell-ing My Feathers

I think Russell Knox is the most interesting player in this field and one that I’m having a ton of difficulty in handicapping.

He’s been one of the most consistent golfers in this field, ranking inside the Top 15 in any number of rounds dating back to the last 100 rounds.

However, that hasn’t produced much — just a single finish inside the Top 30 (Jackson) in the entire 2023 calendar year!

But — he’s still an excellent approach player, gaining strokes to the field in 11 of his last 12 and ranks 9th from 50-125 yards.

Although — he’s lost strokes off-the-tee in 3/4 and lost with the putter in 5/6.

Alas — He’s played here four times: T11, T16, T12, T49.

I’m exhausted, I have no idea.

Eyes 🤝 Data

I always love it when the numbers confirm the eye test and I believe that’s what we have this week at Port Royal — in regards to the types of golfers who should have the most success.

If you’ve never seen it before, I have a regression model for each golf course that simply says “what type of golfers should have success at this course?”. It uses historic data, for each season and builds out profiles of guys who correlate to good finishes at each TOUR stop. Then it spits out each stat and its relative importance.

There are certainly a few noisy stats in the mix (long shots from the rough) but the throughline is quite clear. The model loves wedge play and putting with a dash of scoring upside.

Guess what — my eyes love that too! Short course where everyone is live with massive greens and a chance to go really low (if the wind cooperates). Yessir!

🍃 Now Run The Model

Taking the information above, I ran a model looking for which golfers would fit the criteria the best. I broke it down like this:

SG PUTT: 40
APP from 50-125 yards: 40
Scoring Upside: 20

Which reveals that this week’s winner is … Harry Hall!

🐳 Splash Around With Me

Congrats to ‘roylehrman42069’ who won the Listener Contest last week. He was a staggering 109-under from his six golfers.

This week’s contest is now live. You pick one golfer from each tier, across six tiers and see who can put together the best team.

⛳ Link: https://bit.ly/45PcGyB

🔢 By The Numbers

23.6 — the number of fantasy points gained, per start, by Vince Whaley. That’s the second most of anyone this fall, with at least three starts (List).
5.30 — birdies or better per round for MJ Daffue this fall, the second most of anyone with at least four starts. Daffue has missed the cut three times and finished T38.
31.65 — the number of strokes gained by Brian Gay in his last six Champions Tour starts.
25.55 — the number of strokes lost by Brian Gay in his last six PGA TOUR starts.

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