Deep In The Heart of Texas
Valero Texas Open | Stats, Trends & Things You Don't Need To Know
TPC San Antonio (Oaks)
Par 72 - 7,494 Yards
Last Chance For Glory
This is the last opportunity for those who haven’t already, to qualify for the Masters. The notables in the Valero Texas Open field who have not yet qualified for the Masters:
Maverick McNealy
Keegan Bradley
Adam Hadwin
Jason Day
Jhonny Vegas
What To Do About Charley
A few weeks ago, I pointed out what elite course history looks like on TOUR. Here’s the golfers, with their accompanying courses, that have gained at least 2.4 strokes per round in at least 28 rounds.
The original graphic was designed for Rory at Bay Hill, but Hoffman at TPC San Antonio also applies. The problem for Charley is his recent form. He’s finished no better than 67th in any of his last six starts and he’s lost a total of 24.07 strokes from tee-to-green over his last six measured events. Recent Form vs. Course History — decide which side you’re on!
Expensive Abe
At $10,300 on DraftKings, this is the third most expensive that Abraham Ancer has been dating back to 2018 (106 starts). Of the eight most expensive weeks for Ancer, he’s missed the cut in three of them but has a Top 25 in each of the other five. His average ownership in those eight weeks is 18.11%.
Curb Your Misses
If you’re going to miss the fairway at TPC San Antonio, miss it by a little. If you miss it by a lot, that’s when the numbers start adding up. The scoring averages from fairway drives to rough drives is nearly identical. The scoring averages significantly increase the further wayward those drives are.
Golfers who have a knack for big misses can be a bit scary this week and playing the props feels like the best way to take advantage.
Bryson DeChambeau under 12.5 GIR in R1
Jordan Spieth under 12.5 GIR in R1
These two props at PrizePicks have my full attention. It’s hard enough for the field to hit greens here at TPC San Antonio, just 58% of the time last year. These aretwo golfers with big misses off-the-tee, who could eliminate a few chances of finding the putter surface with their driver.
In Spieth’s win last year, he went under 12.5 GIR in 3/4 rounds!
I’ve already smashed it at PrizePicks, so if you’re interested.
Code: "RICK"
Play: https://bit.ly/3oxONZw
Dry San Antonio
This is the first time I’ve put a weather calendar into the newsletter.
That’s a combined 0.31 inches of rain in March, which is about 2” less than they’d expect. It goes back even further, without significant rainfall since February 3rd. Listen, I’m no meteorologist but I imagine the course is going to be dry. The fairways have already historically run out, making this course play shorter than the 7,400 yards listed on the scorecard.
Don’t shy away from shorter, more accurate drivers. *whispers Abe Ancer*
🚨ALERT
I had to move up the Live Chat this week, it’ll be Wednesday at 12pm ET.
Good Luck,
Rick