Deere In The Headlights
John Deere Classic | Stats, Trends & Things You Don't Need To Know
TPC Deere Run
Par 71 - 7,289 Yards
Fun Fact: During the “Bicycle Craze” of 1894, John Deere manufactured three different models of bikes.
The Field
Let’s address the field, which checks in at a whopping 54 Strength of Field. Outside of the Puerto Rico Open and Corales Puntacana Championship, it’s the weakest PGA TOUR field in 2022. However, someone is still going to win! Six guys will still be in the optimal lineup! Here are the best players in fields with a SOF under 125.
Updates To RickRunGood.com
As many of you know, I’ve been transition the site to a “new database” over the past few weeks and months, which I’m happy to report is now complete. The “new database” will not only allow for all available data across multiple tours (PGA, Korn Ferry, Euro, Champions, LIV, etc) but will allow it all to interact together. It’s a major step forward.
You may see things “look” a bit different and there will be significant upgrades coming soon. A few new things to point out:
H2H Matchups Tool
Now allows you to choose any number of rounds you’d like to compare two golfers and also shows you how frequently each golfer gains x strokes to the field. Super helpful in seeing floor versus upside.
For example, the matchup above — Cam Davis gains 0+, 1+, 3+, 4+ and 5+ strokes in a round more frequently than Chez Reavie. He should be -146 but he’s -110 on DK Sportsbook right now.
Golfer Profiles
The Golfer Profiles should now be easier to navigate (tabs instead of scrolling) and also includes a lot more data. Specifically — fantasy data. Each golfer now has historic salaries, odds, Jock MKT returns, prop numbers and more.
All available at RickRunGood.com
Prop It Like It’s Hot
The prop market is amazing right now and I have some data that could be interesting. First, the infamous “birdie or better matchups”. These are single round matchups between two golfers who seemingly have no business being paired up against one another with all the lines set to 0. Meaning, you just choose the golfer who will make more birdies or better during that round.
If you’ve been choosing the “headliner” — the golfer who is featured on PrizePicks — you’ve been printing money. The headliners went 26-10-6 last week and continue their dominant run. (h/t to Andy M. for compiling the data)
Those matchups are available for LIV Golf for the first time ever this week.
Secondly, PrizePicks is offering R1 PGA Birdies or Better at 3.5 or 4.0 —- umm, guys?! This thing has been a birdie-fest! Of the eligible golfers who have played this event before, all of them have gone over their line the majority of the time!
Crazy stuff — SECURE THEM: bit.ly/3oxONZw
Code “RICK” for deposit bonus
Wedge Yourself
My friend and colleague Greg DuCharme has cooked up this theory about wedge play at TPC Deere Run. He’s been digging through the results and seems to have discovered a correlation between success at this event and wedge play from 50-125 yards. Let’s assume he’s onto something — here are the best players in this field from that range:
The Big Three
There are seemingly only three options that most people are using for One & Done this week. Current projections:
Webb Simpson: 21.4%
Adam Hadwin: 19.6%
Sahith Theegala: 16.2%
Denny McCarthy: 6.8%
Cameron Davis: 5.7%
Good Luck
Rick