Fortinet Championship
Stats, Trends & Things You Don't Need To Know
The event formerly known as the Safeway Open.
Course: Silverado Resort (North)
Par 72 - 7,166 Yards
Poa/Bentgrass Greens
Short Hitters, Unite!
Checking in at 7,166 yards, the North Course at Silverado was the 4th shortest Par-72* on the PGA TOUR schedule last season. Can you name the three shorter courses? Answers below. It’s one of the few opportunities for the “shorter guys” to contend. Here are the best players on Par-72 courses that are 7,200 yards or less since 2011:
*Pebble Beach (6,816), Sherwood Country Club (7,073), PGA West (7,113)
Dial-In Those Wedges
Per Justin Ray - Silverado has yielded the third-most shots from 50-125 yards over the last three years. If you use the RickRunGood.com Custom Model and evenly weigh approaches from 75-100 and 100-125, here are the best players in the field:
Brandt Snedeker
Roger Sloan
Tom Hoge
Jason Dufner
Cameron Tringale
Let’s Talk Rahm
Jon Rahm throws a wrench into this field for a variety of reasons. He’s the best player here, by a significantly wide margin. In the 2021 season, he gained 2.06 strokes to the field per round. The next best player in the field, Webb Simpson, gained 1.20 strokes per round. That’s a 0.86 stroke per round difference between the best player and the second-best player. That gap is the same difference between Simpson and Brendon Todd, the 26th best player in this field.
Can you bet Jon Rahm at +300? Of course you can but should you? This is where you need to consider your goals. If you want to have a likely sweat on Sunday, sure — go ahead. If you care about value and keeping track of your wagers, you cannot pull the trigger here.
Rahm at +300 implies he is going to win the event 25% of the time. Winning a full-field event, with a cut 25% of the time is absolutely bonkers. Tiger Woods, in his prime (1999 to 2013) won 29.2% of his worldwide events. That includes the Hero World Challenge with only 18 players and everything in-between. We are being asked to pay PRIME TIGER WOODS numbers for Jon Rahm. I love the guy, but not on an outright ticket.
Cash In Those TOUR Cards
This is the first full graduating class from the Korn Ferry Tour since the start of the 2020 season. Here are some notable new faces you’ll see on TOUR this season (and some we got a glimpse of last year):
Mito Pereira played seven PGA TOUR events last year, earning (3) Top 6 finishes and proving to be an excellent ball-striker.
David Lipsky is no stranger to PGA TOUR events. This will be his 19th PGA TOUR start. He played (3) events last season, missing the cut at the Travelers, finishing T48 at the WGC Workday and finishing T8 at the Palmetto Championship.
Taylor Moore earned a Top 10 in 33% of his Korn Ferry Tour starts last season and ranked inside the Top 25 in both Driving Accuracy and GIR%.
Top Heavy Field
As of writing this, the OWGR has assigned this event a 216 Strength of Field. That would have been the 14th easiest field on TOUR last season. Here are the best players in events where the SOF was between 200 and 300.
What do these have in common?
Wednesday, 3pm ET
Wednesday, 8:15pm ET
Friday, 4pm ET
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See you there and good luck
-Rick
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