⛱️ Kneel To The King
Honda Review & Arnold Palmer Preview | Stats, Trends & More!
It’s starting to feel like Major Season, right? Between Torrey Pines, TPC Scottsdale, Riviera and now — Bay Hill. These are big boy events and we are really just getting started.
The whole elevated/designated event thing has a silly name but the concept is proving to be aces. Having all the best players in the world, at the same events, is incredible. How did we never do this before?
So I mean this with total sincerity — thanks LIV!
- Rick
🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup
🍿 Shane Lowry is Back?
Lowry gained 10.92 strokes from tee-to-green last week at the Honda Classic, the most in the field and his most in a PGA TOUR event since the 2022 RBC Canadian Open. That’s now a total of 18.10 strokes gained from tee-to-green over his last eight rounds.
Will this top form being able to unlock Bay Hill for Lowry? In four career trips, he’s never made the cut.
🔥 Weekend Warriors
Did they find something? Can they carry it over into this week? Here are the best ball-strikers from rounds 3 and 4 at the Honda Classic who are playing the API this week:
Justin Suh +5.54
Shane Lowry +5.50
Robby Shelton +4.32
Sepp Straka +3.80
Lee Hodges +2.18
👑 Race For Fantasy King
Since the start of the 2023 season, Jon Rahm has been the best fantasy golfer — averaging 91.43 fantasy points in seven starts. That’s 640 total fantasy points scored. However, sometimes fantasy golf is a volume game and Rahm doesn’t compete with guys who play nearly every week.
There are six golfers who have scored over 800 fantasy points already this season:
Taylor Montgomery: 875.5
Brandon Wu: 845.0
SH Kim: 834.5
Ben Griffin: 826.0
Tom Hoge: 814.0
Stephan Jaeger: 812.0
Let’s highlight SH Kim for a second. He’s been the volatile “week winning” type option that most fantasy managers are looking for. He has the second most “Star” weeks of that 800+ group and also the most “Scrub” weeks. He’s certainly not a consistent option, but that might intrigue you.
🏇 The Ultimate Course Horse
Over the last eight seasons, Rory McIlroy has played 28 rounds at Bay Hill and has gained 2.40 strokes per round during that run. It includes one win, four more Top 10s and no finish worse than T27.
This is the fourth best “Course Horse” on the TOUR — meaning the best results by any player at any course. There are only nine instances of golfers, with at least 28 rounds played, gaining at least 2.0 strokes per round.
Which leads us to…
❓ Trivia!
There are three golfer/course combinations better than Rory McIlroy at Bay Hill dating back to the 2016 season.
This requires at least 28 rounds played on that course. Name Them!
Hint: All three instances are by unique golfers and all three are playing the API this week.
(Answer at bottom of the email)
👍 When Bad Is Actually Good
I’d like to present the case that Luke List is the most consistent golfer on the PGA TOUR.
Exhibit A: He gained 10.77 strokes T2G at Riviera, the 10th time in 11 starts that he’s gained from T2G.
Exhibit B: He lost 7.12 strokes putting at Riviera, the 17th (!!) straight start losing strokes putting.
You know exactly what you’re going to get with List, so we need to find the courses where he can still putt bad but just “not as bad”. Enter — Bay Hill.
In five trips to Bay Hill, List has gained putting in three of them. Despite losing 7 strokes putting last year (LOL), it’s still his third best (?) putting course.
Here are the courses that List has played at least 18 rounds since 2016, sorted by SG PUTT. He’s still a loser at Bay Hill but not nearly as bad as most other places.
3️⃣ Par 3s over 200 yards
Bay Hill features some monster Par-3s, with the average distance checking in around 210 yards. That was the longest non-major Par-3 length on TOUR last season, behind only Southern Hills for the PGA Championship. Here are the golfers who gain the most strokes on Par-3s over 200 yards (keep sample sizes in mind):
🧥 Slip Into Something A Little More Comfortable
The prize for winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational will include a red cardigan, which makes up 20% of the possible “outerwear” that can be won in a season. Here are the best players in events that award a cardigan, sweater, jacket, etc … dating back five years.
h/t to Kyle Porter’s “Normal Sport 2” for reminding me of this.
Tournaments include: Phoenix, Arnold Palmer Invitational, Masters, Hilton Head and Colonial.
🌞 Don’t Forget About Puerto Rico!
There are only 12 golfers in the Puerto Rico Open field that have gained strokes over their last 36 rounds (PGA, KFT rounds only). That’s gotta be a record.
Akshay Bhatia has been, by far, the best player in the field. He finished T49 at the Honda Classic but gained 5.82 strokes on approach — the 12th best mark in the field.
⚠️ In Case You Missed It
📽️ Full Tournament Breakdown — My full DFS Preview is available on YouTube, where I tackle the course and the field with data alone!
🤑 Another Proportunity — My favorite stock market DFS site, Jock MKT, has entered the prop game and we’ve learned that they take on a lot more risk than their peers. Some of the better lines I’ve seen so far — promo code RICK.
🎙️Round-by-Round Recaps Are Back! — For those missing the First Cut Round-by-Round recaps — giddy up! Once the final putt drops for every PGA TOUR round moving forward, we’re live on YouTube to discuss the day and rounds moving forward.
📜15 Golfers in Three Categories: “Definitely Going To Play”, “Might Play”, “Fading”. Across all pricing tiers.
🏌️♂️Bay Hill Course Breakdown — For my money, Andy’s course breakdown each week is as good as it gets. Very nerdy and very actionable.
Trivia Answer: Jon Rahm at Torrey Pines, Jason Day and Pebble Beach and Jordan Spieth at Colonial.