🦈La Jolla Atcha Boy
AMEX Review & Farmers Preview | Stats, Trends & More!
🦈 La Jolla Atcha Boy
AMEX Review & Farmers Preview | Stats, Trends & More!
THIS TOURNAMENT STARTS ON WEDNESDAY!!! There, you’ve been warned. The TOUR isn’t going to battle the NFL for ratings this weekend, so a quick turnaround — running Wednesday to Saturday.
With the short week, this will be the only issue of the RunGood RunDown this week.
I’ll be at Torrey all four days. If you see me, say hello. My plan is to walk the North Course mostly the first two days since it won’t be used on the weekend. The best place to post up is around the 2nd green on the South Course. You can see approach shots and a few other holes in that same location.
- Rick
Last Week’s Optimal Lineup
🤢 Missing Part of the Picture
There were only two rounds last week (Stadium Course) where we had ShotLink data. Clearly this is missing some data but here were the best ball-strikers in the field last week
🙋♂️ Waiver Claims
If you’re playing season long fantasy golf, the waiver wire is going to be your best friend. The constant churn of your last few roster spots will ensure you have as many starters as possible each week. Here are some highly available options:
Davis Thompson (available in 40% of leagues) - pretty obvious, right? He caps a stellar week in Palm Springs with a runner-up finish, marking his 3rd Top 15 already this season. He’s in a race for the Top 70 to ensure he keeps his card this season, so he’s likely to play often.
Nico Echavarria (97% availability) - There’s some real talent in this guy who has worked his way up from the PGA TOUR Latinoamerica to the Korn Ferry Tour and now with a PGA TOUR card. He had a Top 10 in 25% of his KFT starts last season and finished T12 at the Sony Open before missing the cut (on the number) last week. He’s not an immediate add, but someone we should be keeping our eye on.
Aaron Baddeley (82% availability) - Baddeley found the week in Palm Springs, making the cut for the eight time in his last nine starts. He has (2) Top 10s in his last five starts and has improved statistically in nearly every category. Solid plug & play option when you’re in need.
💰 Long, Wet and Thick
That’s how the South Course will play this week! Already checking in at 7,765 yards on the scorecard, it’s one of the longest courses on the schedule. This January has been exceptionally wet in San Diego as they’ve received over 5.5 inches of rain already.
That’s almost 3x their January expectation. It’s the most January rainfall since 2016 when Brand Snedeker won the Farmers Insurance Open. Yes … that year!
Expect the rough to be extra juicy this time around.
💰 It’s Not Even Close
Jon Rahm has been dominant — obviously. But how dominant? Over his last 24 rounds, he’s gaining 3.15 strokes per round. That’s basically the same rate as Tiger Woods’ 2007 season, where he gained 3.092 strokes per round. Tiger won 7 of his 16 starts that year and finished runner-up three more times. So yeah, pretty good.
The next closest golfer in the field during that span is Tony Finau at +1.66 per round. The gap between Rahm (1) and Finau (2) is the same gap from Finau (2) to MJ Daffue (62).
💰 It’s Poa Annua SZN
A true indicator of golf course knowledge is whether you can correctly pronounce “poa annua”. A true indicator of success this week might be how well you can putt on poa annua!
This naughty little strain can cause fits for guys who lack experience or confidence on this surface. Below are the Poa Annua Specialists — those with the biggest positive different from their putting on this surface versus their baseline.
Doug Ghim +0.91 to baseline
Luke List +0.75
Scott Piercy +0.72
Wyndham Clark +0.68
JB Holmes +0.59
💰 Griffin’s Secret Ceiling
The last 24 rounds have been dominated by Jon Rahm who is gaining 5+ strokes per round in 33.33% of those rounds. The second-best rate during that stretch goes to … Ben Griffin.
Griffin has gained 5+ strokes in 16.67% of his last 24 rounds — which is kind of crazy! He missed the cut at the Fortinet but hasn’t missed one since. He has (6) finishes of T32 or better and seems close to putting it all together. He tends to have one bad round per week that really needs to be cleaned up.