Literally a Trash Tournament
WM Phoenix Open | Stats, Trends & Things You Don't Need To Know
TPC Scottsdale
Par 71 - 7,069 Yards - Bermudagrass Greens
Fairways Hit: 59.45% (22nd hardest out of 51)
Greens Hit: 72.14% (44th hardest out of 51)
Birdie or Better: 22.71% (36th hardest out of 51)
Scoring Average: 69.45 (42nd hardest out of 51)
Bizarro Mito
Mito Pereira, my one true love, has been one of the better ball-strikers on TOUR since his debut last summer. In his first nine measured starts, he gained a total of 25.1 strokes on approach (+2.79 per event). In that stretch he lost 8.3 strokes putting (-0.92 per event).
However, he is now flying backwards around the Earth*. In his last four measured starts, Mito has been reliant on the putter, gaining 14.9 strokes (+3.725 per event). On top of that he’s gained just 0.88 strokes on approach (+0.22 per event). Are these related? Probably. Will he marry both together and win this week? Maybe
*Yes, I understand this is how Superman turned back time, don’t @ me.
Knoxy, the Bermudagrass Solver
When Russell Knox steps onto the putting surface things can get weird…very weird. Historically, when that surface is bermudagrass, he has little chance of contending. HOWEVER! At the 2021 Valspar Championship, Knox gained 3.16 strokes putting. That stopped a streak of nine straight bermudagrass starts with him losing strokes on the putting surface. Since then, he’s gained stroked in five of his last nine bermudagrass starts. Putting to a +1.0 or +2.0 is the blueprint for Knox to contend.
Back To Basics
The course history around TPC Scottsdale is pretty sticky, so I just wanted to provide a list of the best players at this course since the start of 2008:
Introducing TPC Lee
On this week’s First Cut Podcast, Sia Nejad casually referred to K.H. Lee at TPC Lee, indicating his success on TPC courses. It caught me off-guard and I had to look it up. Sia was right. Lee is gaining 0.93 strokes per round since the start of 2021, well ahead of his baseline (0.05). He’s gained strokes on the field in six out of nine starts at TPC courses. Just for the purposes of lists, here are the best TPC players since 2021, minimum 12 rounds:
Jordan Spieth +2.24
Daniel Berger +1.88
Seamus Power +1.85
Justin Thomas +1.83
Abraham Ancer: +1.63
Props Are In!
After going 8-2 in props last week, I’m hooked! So much so, that I built a tool to help me analyze each and every prop on PrizePicks. You can use any number of rounds you’d like and run the numbers to get a probability for each over and under.
Here’s a few that caught my eye for Round 1:
Kevin Kisner under 69.5 Fantasy Points (score) — That’s only two-under around TPC Scottsdale where Kisner should be able to separate himself in hitting fairways (1st on TOUR) and gets to putt on bermuda again.
Scottie Scheffler under 8.5 Fairways - Scheffler is currently hitting 59.7% of his fairways, 123rd on TOUR. Combine that with the hardest part of TPC Scottsdale, where it ranks above average in difficult to find the short-grass and we’ve got a recipe for a winner. Three things:
Notice I chose two unders — that’s allowed now! You no longer need to choose one over and one under.
PrizePicks is now available in Virginia, woohoo!
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That link or the code RICK will get you a 100% instant deposit match up to $100.
Hiccup For Hickok
Kramer Hickok had a really strange situation occur at The American Express, his last start. He gained 1.39 strokes on the field and… missed the cut. That’s really only possible in a three-course rotation. Basically it means that he played better on courses when they were playing more difficult compared to his peers.
I’m fairly bullish on Hickok this week as he’s gained strokes on both approach and off-the-tee in his two starts of 2022. When he’s playing well, he’s playing out of the fairway which could be vital this week.
Patrick The Great
Patrick Cantlay rarely disappoints. His backers in Jock MKT, stock market DFS, paid an all-time high for him last week at $12.21/share. With his fourth place finish, Cantlay paid out $16.00/share, for a profit of $3.79/share.
It’s pretty insane to turn a profit in your all-time high week but it’s not unusual for Cantlay. He’s actually returned a profit at each of his four most expensive prices!
It’s a bit hard to fathom other than to say that when the sentiment on Cantlay has been the highest, he’s still outperformed those expectations. Impressive stuff.
Use the code RICK when you sign up at Jock MKT for up to a $50 deposit bonus.
Good luck
Rick