🌸Masters Of Your Own Domain
Texas Open Review & Masters Preview | Stats, Trends & More!
Welcome to the greatest week of the year. In a few short days someone will put on a Green Jacket and etch themselves into the history of the game. There’s no shortage of storylines — LIV vs. the PGA TOUR, Rory going for the Career Grand Slam, Scottie looking to stay hot and … TIGER WOODS.
Below you’re going to find some data nuggets and analysis. While I try to throw emotion out the window and do whatever the data says, there’s nothing that can evoke emotion quite like Augusta National.
I hope you enjoy.
Rick
🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup
🤢 Si Woo’s Whoopsie
Si Woo Kim was popular last week, rostered in 24.3% of fantasy lineups — second to only Rickie Fowler (27.3%). You could basically hear the groans from around the globe when he made a quadruple-bogey nine on no. 14 during his second round. To make matters worse, he made that crooked number from the middle of the fairway.
That hole alone accounted for 4.26 strokes lost to the field. It was a rough stretch for Si Woo, who lost 0.96 strokes on 11, 0.87 on 13, then 4.26 on 14. That’s losing 6.09 strokes to the field in three holes, almost all in a row.
The “good news” is that Si Woo gained 9.12 strokes to the field over his other 69 holes last week, which alone, would have been good enough 9th place. Too bad he had to play all 72 holes.
🥊 Knocking The Cover Off The Ball
Corey Conners leaned into his strengths last week, gaining 13.50 strokes ball-striking en route to victory at the Valero Texas Open. That’s the most of any winner this season and the third-most of any winner dating back to the start of the 2020 season.
🛢️ LIV Data & More!
Obviously one of the big storylines this week is the return of the LIV golfers. LIV Golf data is one of the six tours supported on RickRunGood.com, so if you are looking for their results — I have them for you.
Additionally, I pushed some major updates to the Custom Model last week that include:
Multi-Slate Support — I can now load multiple slates/tournaments at the same time with no limits. This means showdown, Korn Ferry, LIV, Future Events, etc. All of those will have stat support and lineup building capabilities.
More Stats — I’ve added two dozen more stats bringing the total to 143 different options. The notable additions include Strokes Gained Rates (0+, 1+, 2+, etc), Opportunities and Opportunities+, SG by Green Speed, SG by Course Length and more.
Projected Ownership Tracking — You’ll be able to see the projected ownership, as always, but also how it has changed since the last run. Identify golfers moving in different directions.
Import/Export Functionality — If you’re a “hands on” kind of person, you can now download you models and update anything you want (stats, value, max ownership, etc) and import it back into the model to generate lineups.
🤕 LIV Golfers Breakdown
There are 18 golfers who currently reside at LIV Golf who will be teeing it up at the Masters this week. Here they are, with their LIV Strokes Gained.
The most difficult part of the data analysis for these guys is basically answering the question “how valuable are their LIV results?”. With only 54 holes at courses with little history, in small/weak fields — it’s not an easy question to answer.
My “Weighted Strokes Gained” calculation certainly helps in this department. Looking at Strength of Field, course dynamics and a variety of other factors. Here are some notable differences for the LIV golfers in weighted strokes gained for the last 36 rounds compared to raw strokes gained.
Dustin Johnson | Raw: +1.74 (6th), Weighted: +1.31 (18th)
Cam Smith | Raw: +1.09 (22nd), Weighted: +0.31 (54th)
Joaquin Niemann | Raw: +1.24 (18th), Weighted: +0.46 (48th)
Brooks Koepka | Raw: +0.39 (57th), Weighted: +0.20 (57th)
🧩 How Sticky Is Augusta National?
Course History “Stickiness” refers to the consistency of results on a year-over-year basis. There are courses that breed carnage, like Torrey Pines and TPC Sawgrass, where few golfers have similar results over time. And then there is Augusta National…
This is the “most sticky” course history in the world. It’s a smaller field comprised of the same types of golfers with the course playing fairly consistent on an annual basis.
There are other courses that rank highly in the “strong course history” model, like Riviera and Bay Hill — but no course sniffs Augusta National. Here are the best players at Augusta National dating back to 2008.
Note: The SG Breakdown (OTT, APP, etc) is available for 2022, 2021 and 2019.
❓ Trivia!
Since 2016, there are 30 golfers in this field who have played at least 20 rounds at Augusta National. Of those 30, there are only two golfers who have completed each of their starts by gaining strokes to the field.
Name Either.
(Answer at bottom of the email)
👑 The $7,600 Winners
Since it’s the Masters, DraftKings released the pricing early last week before knowing the results of the Valero Texas Open and LIV Golf Orlando. There are (3) golfers priced at $7,600 on the site —
Min Woo Lee who didn’t play last week.
Corey Conners who won the Valero Texas Open.
Brooks Koepka who won LIV Golf Orlando.
Sheesh! It’s safe to say that Conners and Koepka will be even more popular than anticipated this week. If the wins weren’t enough, both have additional reasons to be excited.
For Koepka, it’s his Major Championship prowess. He’s gained 2.25 strokes per round in Majors since the start of 2016. That’s the second best of anyone in this field, behind Will Zalatoris — who has one-third the rounds played as Koepka.
Conners is also carving out a nice little run at Augusta National where he’s finished T10, T8 and T6 in the last three years.
🤖 The Longest & Shortest Clubs in Rory’s Bag
Rory McIlroy has been under the microscope recently, putting a new driver set-up and new putter in his bag in recent weeks. Early returns are positive!
He gained 8.53 strokes off-the-tee during the Match Play. Say what you will about Austin CC lending itself to big driving numbers and wonky Match Play data, but that cannot be ignored. Statistically, it was the most he’s gained since his Wells Fargo Championship win in 2015.
He gained 2.37 strokes putting that week as well, his best putting week on TOUR since his win at the CJ Cup in October.
📈 Winners Tend To Trend 📉
The Masters is such a unique betting opportunity because the odds are available year-round. We are also able to track those odds over time and see who is trending in what direction. Over the last ten years, seven winners had shorter odds the week of the tournament than they did on January 1st of that year (or June 1st in DJ’s case). Two of them stayed the same and only Hideki’s odds were worse the week of the event.
Essentially this simply says the winner was either playing better and/or was receiving a more positive public sentiment than a few months prior.
2022: Scottie Scheffler | Jan 1: +4000, Week of: +1600 📈
2021: Hideki Matsuyama | Jan 1: +4000, Week of: +6000 📉
2020: Dustin Johnson | Jun 1: +1600, Week of: +800 📈
2019: Tiger Woods | Jan 1: +1200, Week of: +1200 🟰
2018: Patrick Reed | Jan 1: +6000, Week of: +4000 📈
2017: Sergio Garcia | Jan 1: +5000, Week of: +3000 📈
2016: Danny Willett | Jan 1: +12500, Week of: +5000 📈
2015: Jordan Spieth | Jan 1: +2000, Week of: +1000 📈
2014: Bubba Watson | Jan 1: +4000, Week of: +2000 📈
2013: Adam Scott | Jan 1: +2500, Week of: +2500 🟰
Taking this information, we can look back at the odds on January 1st, 2023 and see who has been trending in the betting markets.
Scottie Scheffler | Jan 1: +1600, Week of: +700 📈
Jordan Spieth | Jan 1: +2500, Week of: +1600 📈
Max Homa | Jan 1: +5000, Week of: +2500 📈
Cameron Young | Jan 1: +4000, Week of: +2800 📈
Sungjae Im | Jan 1: +4000, Week of: +3500 📈
Sam Burns | Jan 1: +4000, Week of: +3500 📈
Brooks Koepka | Jan 1: +5000, Week of: +3500 📈
Corey Conners | Jan 1: +6000, Week of: +3500 📈
Tyrrell Hatton | Jan 1: +8000, Week of: +5000 📈
🏈 The Super Bowl of Golf
Obviously the Masters is the Super Bowl of golf and like the actual Super Bowl, there are a million different betting options. The Props Market is open and two numbers stand out to me.
Rory McIlroy Round 1 Over 71.0 — In 14 trips to Augusta National, McIlroy has shot under 71 just three times in the opening round. His opening round average since needing the Masters to complete the career grand slam is 72.375.
Over his 52 total rounds at Augusta National, he has gone under 71.0 in 19/52. Of those “under rounds”, 8/19 have come in round four. History has shown that Rory gets off to a slow start and charges over the weekend.
Tiger Woods Round 1 Under 73.5 — Injured or not, Tiger has gone under 73.5 in 11 straight opening rounds. His knowledge of the course is probably worth two shots and it’s safe to assume he’ll be strongest at the start of the week.
Putting these two props together offers a 3x return at PrizePicks. You can also use my code, “RICK” to get a $100 deposit bonus.
😇 Say A Prayer For Amen Corner Props
If you want even more options, Jock MKT has entered the props game and they are offering golf props for the first time this week. They have my favorite prop type, which is Strokes at Amen Corner.
Amen Corner at Augusta National is a notoriously challenging stretch of holes (11, 12, and 13) that have the power to make or break a golfer's performance.
Jock MKT has set all the lines at 12.5 which seems high even with the lengthening of hole no. 13. Playing Amen Corner at even par is 12 strokes and these big boys have pretty decent results around that stretch.
Over the last three years…
Scottie Scheffler has gone under 12.5 in 11/12 rounds.
Rory McIlroy has gone under 12.5 in 7/10 rounds.
Cam Smith has gone under 12.5 in 8/12 rounds.
Jon Rahm has gone under 12.5 in 7/12 rounds.
Max Homa has gone under 12.5 in 4/8 rounds.
I’ll be piling up entries with Scottie Scheffler under 12.5 and Rory McIlroy under 12.5 — then I’ll be sprinkling in Cam and Rahm unders along the way.
This is the first week for golf props on JockMKT, so they are offering a $100 deposit bonus if you use my code “RICK”.
⚠️ In Case You Missed It
🎧 Sia Nejad took me out of my comfort zone as we chatted about life, motivation and how to get better every single day.
🙏 Collin Morikawa & Max Homa announced they are going to partner up for the Zurich Classic in a few weeks. They’ve already got a team name — “Homakama”.
📺 I’ll be part of the wall-to-wall coverage on CBS Sports HQ this week, with hour-by-hour updates and analysis.
🎥 This deep-dive into the 12th hole at Augusta National is some of the best content you’re going to find this week. The team at Golf Digest knocked it out of the park.
🤯 Greg DuCharme breaks down why defensive putters at Augusta National can have great success because of the undulation and speed of the greens.
Trivia Answer:
Hideki Matsuyama and Jon Rahm.
