Swinging Into Florida
Honda Classic | Stats, Trends & Things You Don't Need To Know
PGA National
Par 70 - 7,125 Yards - Bermudagrass Greens
Fairways Hit: 57.06% (16th hardest out of 51)
Greens Hit: 61.59% (18th hardest out of 51)
Birdie or Better: 18.42% (13th hardest out of 51)
Scoring Average: 71.10 (6th hardest out of 51)
H2Oh, No!
Yes, yes — there’s water lurking everywhere. It comes into play on 15 different holes, to be exact. There are only six courses on the schedule where water is in play on 10+ holes. Here are the best players, historically, at those courses:
Mini Major
PGA National played 1.102 strokes over par last year, making it the 6th hardest course on the schedule and the 3rd hardest non-major. There were only nine courses in which the scoring average was at least one stroke over par last season. Here’s how the golfers in this field have historically fared on those courses (minimum 40 rounds):
Sungjae Im +1.42 (72 Rounds)
Aaron Wise +1.20 (60 Rounds)
Rickie Fowler +1.19 (196 Rounds)
Lee Westwood +1.18 (135 Rounds)
Patrick Reed +1.17 (137 Rounds)
The Bear Trap
Holes 15, 16 and 17 make up “The Bear Trap”. One of the hardest stretches of holes in golf. The sickos over at PrizePicks created Bear Trap Props this week and set every golfer’s odds to 10.5 — imagine the sweat! Anyway, below is the historic scoring for each golfer with a prop available. A few notes:
In only 4 attempts, Patrick Reed has never played the Bear Trap in 10 strokes or less.
Shane Lowry has gone "over 10.5” strokes in 10 of his 16 trips through the stretch.
Rickie Fowler has looped it 20 times and has gone under 10.5 a staggering 17 (!!) times.
My favorite is Alex Noren under 10.5 for R1 — He’s a solid iron player and short-game wizard. Getting up and down to save par is right in his wheelhouse. He’s played the Bear Trap in 10 or fewer strokes 80% of the time.
Secure These: http://bit.ly/3oxONZw
If that wasn’t enough — #15 and #17 are both in “featured holes” for PGA TOUR Live so you’ll be able to see how these all shake out in real-time.
Finally! The Rahm … has come back … to #2!
For the first time since I can remember (probably a year), Jon Rahm is not the best player on TOUR over the Last 50 Rounds. That honor now goes to Patrick Cantlay. Since neither on this field, it doesn’t really matter. Just wanted to post it before I forgot!
Paper Cuts vs. Guillotine
Last week, Riviera — this week, PGA National. Since 2007, they have played to nearly an identical scoring average. Riviera is 71.53 and PGA National is 71.52.
Riviera is a par-71 and PGA National is a par-70 and we can talk about par being a social construct, yada yada yada — but it’s important to Fantasy Scoring. Here are the scoring types for Riviera which can kill you with multiple paper cuts versus PGA National which just chops off your head on one hole.
Golfers are twice as likely to make a double bogey at PGA National and nearly 8x more likely to make a score even worse.
Penny Stock Spaun
J.J. Spaun missed the cut at Riviera last week, which evened a streak of (3) straight Top 35s. Over his last 11 starts, he has (5) Top 30 finishes. That might not be appealing in all formats, since the likelihood of him winning is nearly 0% and the likelihood of him being offered in a pre-tournament matchup is even smaller.
However, he’s been crushing it in stock market DFS, where golfers simply have to beat their own expectation. He’s returned a profit in eight of his last ten starts in the Jock MKT.
Use code “RICK” for a $50 Deposit Bonus
LIVE & IN STUDIO!
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Good Luck
Rick