⌚ The Shortest Offseason in Sports

TOUR Championship Review & Season Recap | Stats, Trends & More!

Aug 31, 2023

Four days ago, the season ended.
In 14 days, the new season begins.
Woohoo!

Seriously, I couldn’t really go through a full multi-month offseason like other sports — it would drive me crazy. I’m proud to have another season under my belt and am thrilled to have your support. I don’t plan on slowing down anytime soon — Napa is on the horizon.

Chat soon.
Rick

PS — There are over 15,000 (!!) nerdy golf people who read this newsletter. You can join them by subscribing below.

🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

👊 Playoff Dominance

Viktor Hovland smashed through the FedEx Cup Playoffs en route to his first FedEx Cup & TOUR Championship. He was, by far, the best player over those three events. I’ve called for the playoffs to be a 216 hole championship where each golfer keeps their score throughout. Hovland would have won in that whacky idea as well.

Below were the best playoff performances with my system and the actual results.

🎖️ The 70% Club

How often a golfer gains to the field is a really important indicator of success. The average golfer, should beat the field, about 50% of the time that he tees it up. Anything over 60% is starting to get into the upper echelon of players who will make a deep run into the playoffs.

Then there’s 70%. Reserved for only the best players in the game, who are routinely beating the field on regular basis. In the 2023 season, there were only 10 golfers who accomplished this feat and it’s a lot of names you’d expect to see:

Now, I left Joseph Bramlett in there for two reasons. 1) To show you I wasn’t skipping anyone and 2) to figure out how the hell Bramlett is on this list.

The ten golfers ahead of Bramlett averaged $12,181,525 in earning this year before FedEx Cup bonus money. Bramlett made $1,597,911. What happened?!

🕵️ The Curious Case of Joseph Bramlett

Statistically, Bramlett has a very high floor (11th highest) but a very low ceiling.

He only gained 2+ strokes to the field in 25% of his rounds, while the Top 10 averaged that feat at a clip of 44.7%.

His rates of gaining 3+, 4+ and 5+ actually got worse at just 9.52%, 4.76% and 2.38%. So while Bramlett has a floor similar to Max Homa, he had a ceiling similar to Richy Werenski. But why?!

Admittedly, I don’t know!

Yes, he’s a bad putter but he is better than Scottie Scheffler and Vincent Norrman (three wins combined) and in the same ballpark as Cameron Young and Cameron Davis — both who have ceilings basically twice as high as Bramlett.

My hunch is that there are two things at play here. First off, he makes a ton of big numbers. He’s a prolific bomber (15th in distance) but absolutely sprays it in all directions (178th in accuracy). I went through his scorecards and the big numbers often come from a poorly placed drive which should be a weapon for him.

The other factor almost has to be something between the ears. He’s so talented but routinely has a five stroke swing from one day to another. He rarely puts multiple good rounds together in a row. I don’t like to point out the mental side of things for guys that I don’t know but there is seemingly no statistical reason for him to be an outlier of this magnitude.

🏈 Last Call For Football

I’m under the impression that a sport called “football” will be starting up again soon and that people really fancy it. I took a crack at creating the optimal NFL Survivor path using math and future value. I also showcased some contents and resources that you can use for this season.

Recommended Tools: https://bit.ly/3qwaFJd
Contests ($100 & $15): https://bit.ly/RRGSplash

⚠️ In Case You Missed It

All of the season long fantasy, as well as one & done leagues that I run have been paid out. Everything that I control is complete, so check your LeagueSafe and/or Fantrax Treasurer page is you are looking for your portion.

Additionally, you can contact your commissioner directly with more questions, but my work is complete.

🥵 Scotty Too Hotty

Are you sick of Scottie Scheffler stats yet? Hopefully, you’ll amuse me for one more and I’ll keep it simple. Scheffler just had the best tee-to-green season in the last 15 years (by a mile). Here are the best Strokes Gained Tee To Green seasons since 2008.

Okay one more. He’s only lost strokes tee-to-green in 15 events in his career. He’s only lost 1+ stroke in seven of those. His two worst tee-to-green weeks ever (-4.69 and -6.67) have both come at TPC Summerlin. Vegas will get ya!

🌎 Ryder Cuppers!

Presented without comment, the 2023 United States Ryder Cup team and their last 100 rounds:

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