🎲The Sin City Open

Shriners Children's Open Preview | Stats, Trends & More!

Oct 05, 2022

Shriners Children's Open Preview | Stats, Trends & More!

In this week’s RunGood RunDown:

Optimal Lineup: Sanderson Farms
Stat Nugget About (Almost) Every Vegas Golfer
Course Horse Who Found Something
The Case For Rickie Fowler
Those That Thrive In The Desert
Two Round 1 Props That I’ve Invested In

😎 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

It doesn’t happen often, but the guy who finished 2nd (Straka) actually scored more fantasy points than the guy who won (Hughes).

🎰 Viva Las Vegas!

There are a ton of Las Vegas guys in this field. Whether they were born here, live here now, attended UNLV, etc — they are worth noting. Here’s a (hopefully complete) list of those golfers with a nugget on each of them:

Doug Ghim - has lost strokes from tee-to-green in four straight, something he hasn’t done since 2019.
Harry Hall - Has lost 12 strokes from tee-to-green in first two starts of the season … shot a 60 here last year recreationally, finished T8 in the actual event.
Charley Hoffman - hemorrhages strokes putting, loser in six straight … has driven it better recently .. (1) Top 25 in his last 27 starts.
Kurt Kitayama - has (4) Top 20s in last seven starts … runner-up at Scottish Open, 7th in Italy (last start) … gained 12.06 ball-striking in Italy, best mark of his career.
David Lipsky - 4th at Zurich and T6 in Mexico back-to-back earlier this year … zero Top 20s since … best finish in L13 is T24 (John Deere).
Maverick McNealy - missed the cut at this event in 3/4 years ... has lost strokes tee-to-green in four straight starts leading in.
Taylor Montgomery - six straight Top 10s, (9) Top 10s in his last (11).
Ryan Moore - has missed 5/6 cuts … won this event in 2012.
Scott Piercy - T19 in Jackson was 3rd Top 27 finish in six starts … others with MC or WD.
Seamus Power - made as many birdies as Mackenzie Hughes last week, finished T30 … lost on approach, gained everywhere else.
Nick Watney - has missed 14/17 cuts … last Top 25 was March (Arnold Palmer Invitational).
Joseph Bramlett - has actually gained strokes putting this year … not many but +0.25 total in eight rounds is way better than his career baseline.
Garrick Higgo - Finished 3rd last week, his first solo Top 10 since his win at the Palmetto in June 2021.
Aaron Wise - sitting at +1800 to win, the shortest odds of his career and first time he’s been shorter than +2500.

💡 Golfer Spotlight: Matthew NeSmith

NeSmith is an excellent approach player as evidenced by finishing inside the Top 30 of SGAPP in each of his last three seasons. It didn’t look like that from the Scottish Open to the Fortinet where he lost a total of 9.86 strokes to the field in only 14 rounds.

However, he looks like vintage NeSmith in Jackson where he was +6.26 — now he shows up in Vegas at a course where he’s earned three straight Top 20 finishes.

Odds — To Win: +8000 | Top 5:+1400 | Top 10: +700 | Top 20: +300 | Top 40: +120

💡 Golfer Spotlight: Rickie Fowler

Yep — it might be happening. Let’s look at the evidence:

Exhibit A: Gained stroked across the board in Napa (T6), first time he’s done that since the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Exhibit B: Has never lost strokes putting in six trips to TPC Summerlin, has (4) Top 25s including (2) Top 7s.

Exhibit C: TPC Summerlin just installed “Dominantor Bentgrass” on the greens and new bermuda fairways — the same that can be found at Summit Club.

Exhibit D: The last time Rickie held a 54 hole lead was at Summit Club.

Exhibit E: He’s back with Butch Harmon, who’s academy is in … Las Vegas.

Odds — To Win: +6000| Top 5:+1000 | Top 10: +450| Top 20: +220| Top 40: -115

🌵 Desert Dogs

There’s just something about desert golf! Where else can you confuse your ball for 1,000 different rocks and be scared of snakes at the same time?! The best golfers on “desert courses” over the last five years:

Patrick Cantlay +3.32
Sungjae Im +1.90
Rickie Fowler +1.36
Adam Hadwin +1.11
Matthew NeSmith +1.06

😡 Prop Fades

There’s two props that stood out to me for this week.

Max Homa o68.0 R1 Score - I love Max, he’s been awesome but maybe TPC Summerlin isn’t his jam? He’s missed the cut in four of his five career starts and has shot under 68 just twice in those 12 rounds. One of them was in 2013 when he played as a 22 year-old.
Patrick Cantlay u14.5 GIR R1 - He’s had great finishes here without hitting a ton of greens. Now he’s being asked to hit 83.3% of greens to beat you? On brand new bouncy greens?! I’d be really impressed if he did.

Join me in this endeavor: https://bit.ly/3oxONZw