🎢 Three For The Price of One
The American Express Preview | Stats, Trends & More!
🎢 Three For The Price of One
The American Express Preview | Stats, Trends & More!
Hello Friends — good to see you. This week might get a little weird. There’s a lot of luck involved with the three course rotation and simply not playing the same course every day. It has generated some chaos in the past with plenty of winners at 100-1 or longer. Embrace it!
Below is the Wednesday edition of the RunGood RunDown. I hope you enjoy.
- Rick
💰 Ahhh, The Courses
Not one, not two, but three courses in action this week:
PGA West (Stadium) … you might also see it as Pete Dye Stadium Course
Par 72: 7,187 yards | 5,000 sq. feet greens | bermudagrass o/s with Poa
Nicklaus Tournament Course
Par 72: 7,147 | 7,000 sq. feet greens | bermudagrass o/s with Poa
La Quinta Country Club
Par 72: 7,060 | 4,773 sq. feet greens | Poa Trivialis o/s with Perennial Ryegrass
Last year, the Stadium Course was the most difficult playing to a 70.57 scoring average — 1.43 strokes under par. Next, the Nicklaus Tournament course played to a 70.27 scoring average — 1.73 strokes under par. The easiest course, was La Quinta which played to a 69.92 scoring average — 2.08 strokes under par.
The order of the rotation:
La Quinta to Nicklaus Tournament to Stadium Course
Nicklaus Tournament to Stadium Course to La Quinta
Stadium Course to La Quinta to Nicklaus Tournament
💸 Not So Longshots
Whether it’s the structure or just variance, this event has provided a lot of longshot winners recently. Here are the past champions since 2013 and their odds to win in that year
👑 Sungjae Him?
Admittedly, I’m quite torn on Sungjae Im. His performance in Honolulu was bad, losing 3.59 strokes ball-striking over just two rounds. Maybe more concerning, he lost strokes on approach consistently over the rounds. He gave back strokes on 19 different holes, out of a possible 35. It wasn’t one or two bad swings — it was a lot of subpar ones.
However I look at his history here and can’t help but get excited. In four trips, he’s never finished worse than T12. If he checks in at low ownership or if his odds inflate in the next few days, you might see me talk myself into Sungjae.
🔁 Ownership Pivots
Below are a few potential pivots from chalky golfers to those who are more contrarian. These are projected ownership numbers from RickRunGood.com and they change multiple times throughout the week. You should visit the site for the most up-to-date projections.
Cameron Young (26%) ▶ Si Woo Kim (7.4%)
I know, I know — guys can’t win back-to-back tournaments unless your name is Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Dustin Johnson, Garrick Higgo, Tony Finau, Brendon Todd, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Adam Scott, Billy Horschel, etc etc.
Si Woo Kim has gained 8+ strokes on approach in two straight starts, accounting for half of all the 8+ approach weeks on TOUR this season. Now he heads to this event where he won in 2021 and finished T11 last year.
Tom Hoge (18%) ▶ Andrew Putnam (6.5%)
Trust me, I love Hoge but isn’t this is “piece of shit, fucking putting contest”? — according to Jon Rahm. Which by the way, this video has apparently been scrubbed from the internet, but we will never forget.
Well Andrew Putnam should be licking his chops. He gained 10.54 strokes putting last week which is absurd but not that crazy. He’s gained strokes putting in 12 straight events and has gained 4+ in Las Vegas, 5+ in Wilmington and 6+ at the 3M Open. It’s kind of his thing. He’s also has (4) Top 25s in his last five trips to this event.
❌ The Field Is A-Changin’
There’s been a few guys who have WD’d from the field this week. Here are the field updates since Monday:
Kyle Stanley OUT ▶ Dylan Wu IN
Brian Gay OUT ▶ Jonathan Byrd IN
Joel Dahmen OUT ▶ Hank Lebioda IN
🎲 Best In Show
Sometimes it’s easy to forget that we are playing a game for fantasy points. Not strokes gained, not Top 10s but fantasy points. And if you score fantasy points, I don’t really care how you get there.
Based on Fantasy Point Percentile, scoring over the 50th percentile puts you above average for the week and scoring in the 90th percentile, or above, makes you a star for that week. When you take each week’s result and look at it for the season so far, here are the best fantasy point scorers in the field:
Also worth noting that Greyson Sigg has an average ownership of 6.4% while Aaron Baddeley has an average ownership of 2.3%.
🚘 Outside My Lane!
Quick reminder that I created a second YouTube channel dedicated to the Props Market for all sports. A data-driven look at the pretty significant edges that are available since props are much less efficient than lines and totals.
The channel is (obviously) named RunGoodProps. I’ll be live Wednesday and Saturday mornings to break down the board statistically. Please subscribe and support the cause!
