You Don't Know Jack
the Memorial | Stats, Trends & Things You Don't Need To Know
Muirfield Village
Par 72 - 7,533 Yards
Fun Fact: The ‘Nicklaus Design’ firm has designed over 425 courses in 45 countries and 40 states. It’s estimated that the firm has designed over 1% of all golf courses on Earth.
Typical Jack
Nicklaus is well-known for his golf course design that tends to favor the left-to-right shot and for holes that get increasingly more difficult the closer you get to the pin. With those tendencies in mind, here are the best players on Nicklaus courses dating back to 2008.
Missed Cuts By Tier
I had a user DM me asking about the Missed Cut rates by pricing tier. I didn’t have the data handy at the time, but I promised him I would include it in this email. Since 2018:
The 973 golfers priced $10,000 or more, missed the cut 21.07% of the time.
The 1,283 golfers priced in the $9,000s, missed the cut 25.33% of the time.
The 1,893 golfers priced in the $8,000s, missed the cut 26.73% of the time.
The 6,444 golfers priced in the $7,000s, missed the cut 38.27% of the time.
The 13,174 golfers priced in the $6,000s, missed the cut 56.05% of the time.
In the 2022 season:
The 155 golfers priced $10,000 or more, missed the cut 18.71% of the time.
The 220 golfers priced in the $9,000s, missed the cut 26.82% of the time.
The 290 golfers priced in the $8,000s, missed the cut 25.86% of the time.
The 961 golfers priced in the $7,000s, missed the cut 39.33% of the time.
The 2,287 golfers priced in the $6,000s, missed the cut 55.75% of the time.
If you have a request like this, let me know — you can reply to this email and I’ll see it.
See You At Brookline
Stoked to hit the road again — this time to Brookline for the U.S. Open! If you’ll be in attendance, let me know. Looking forward to meeting up with some of you!
Chirp, Chirp!
It appears the guys over at PrizePicks are all-in on their new “Birdies or Better Matchups”. I can’t blame them — it’s a great prop. There are 24 different matchups for Round 1 and many have huge differences in BOB%.
For example:
Tom Hoge makes 6.74% more birdies or better per round than Rickie Fowler.
Mito Pereira makes 6.35% more than Abraham Ancer.
Xander Schauffele makes 5.86% more than Si Woo Kim.
The full list for Round 1 is below, I’ll play a lot of the positive players here.
Secure it: https://bit.ly/3oxONZw
Last Year’s Optimal Lineup
Rory
There’s a part of Rory’s game that sets up well for Muirfield Village and it’s probably not the part you’re thinking about. Yes, his driver is great but we know Muirfield Village creates some incredibly difficult positions around-the-green. In the RickRunGood.com course key stats model, only three other courses on TOUR had success that was more correlated to SG: Around-the-Green than Muirfield Village.
On his ten trip to this event, McIlroy has lost a total of 7.98 strokes ARG — which is (-0.22) per round. The good news for Rory is that he’s in the midst of his ARG season ever.
Over the last 50 rounds of everyone in this field, only Matt Kuchar, Chris Kirk and Matt Jones have been better than McIlroy. Combine that with elite driving and that could be an exciting combination this week.
Don’t Mistake Generosity For Weakness
I love what Jack has done with the driving areas here at Muirfield Village. The fairways are generous however, if you miss them, you’re in big trouble. There are few courses on the schedule where the penalty for missing the fairway is so great.
With that in mind, let’s look at stat: “Distance from Edge of Fairway”. This is a stat that calculates how far a golfer misses by, when they fail to hit the short grass. The idea being — these guys are wild! The worst in the field:
And the best:
Good Luck
Rick